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Thursday, May 5, 2011

Stocks

Nice positive divergence on the Russell.  Not so apparent on the S&P's.  Pretty amazing that we're even positive today after that disaster of a weekly jobless claims report.  Particularly when you consider that the ADP also missed and we have the big jobs report tomorrow.

Is the breakdown in commodities pushing money into stocks?  Loose monetary policies suppress yields on safe investments and push investors into riskier assets, from bonds to stocks to commodities. We could be reversing this continuum as QE2 is nearing its end and the Treasury is tapped out on its debt limit.  It is hard to say after one day's activity, but it fits my overall outlook that commodities have topped, the dollar has bottomed, and stocks will make another high.

RUT hourly chart