Could be a big day for the dollar. Looks like we're breaking out of the consolidation I have labeled as a wave iv.
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| DX hourly |
Commodities are selling off from what looks like a technical bounce. Silver is backing off its 38% Fib and Oil is backing off its 50% Fib. We also have the Oil margin hikes going into effect today, which could force some more liquidation and dry up liquidity.
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| Silver hourly |
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| Light Crude hourly |
As for stocks, I'm still confused by the mess left on the charts but here's my best stab at it. It's interesting to note that the RSI peaks between the Russell and S&P happened at different highs. If I had been paying attention I would have seen that the daily S&P was showing a buy signal under my system, with RSI trendline support following a non-divergent high. This says to me that the S&P is on its way to new highs.
The Russell may not be though, as its already diverging. The Russell also tends to lead, so the S&P may soon see an intermediate top after another high. The scenario is at least plausible because I would also expect to see cross-index divergences near a major top, particularly between a high-beta index and a low-beta index.
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| Russell 2000 Daily |
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| S&P 500 Daily |
