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Monday, May 2, 2011

Morning Analysis


Stocks are up on the news that Bin Laden has been killed in an air strike.  Good riddance.

Not too concerned with the actual wave count at this juncture.  This one is based off the expanded flat wave four scenario, which is looking less and less likely. Suffice it to say that this is an uptrend with declining short-term momentum and daily momentum indicators at extremes, so the market is vulnerable to a correction.

ISM comes out at 9:00.  Last month we had a 61.2 print, with the consensus estimate for this month at 59.5.  I'll take the under, given the extreme weakness in the regional surveys released earlier this month.  I'm going to short going into the index's release.


UPDATE: After a small correction we have a very nice long setup

Opening gap filled at 30 Minute RSI trendline support
Short-term (5 minute chart) positive divergence