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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Well We Got Our Fireworks


And I don't know why I thought it might be different this time.  Bernanke speaks and the dollar sinks.  Look at the daily RSI...I got out with a healthy loss after I saw what the markets thought of Bernanke's complete dismissal of monetary policy being a cause of commodity inflation.  Even though he said there was no plan for QE3, he said the most important thing for dollar strength was attracting foreign investment through a strengthening economy.

The markets are probably correctly inferring that Bernanke still believes loose policy is the best way to strengthen the economy, and that he isn't concerned with inflation until that happens.  This is how you get stagflation, but as Bernanke sees it the alternative is a depression.  When the Fed says inflation is transitory, they mean it's as transitory as "accommodative" monetary policy.

These charts are about a month old, but if I had access to a Bloomberg terminal I'd probably be able to tell you nothing's changed except a continuation to the upper right.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet vs. CRB Commodity Index

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500 Index