Longer term outlook

I'm having problems with my account today, so I took the chance to look at the long term chart.  Still looks as if we're in a barrier triangle consolidating the huge 300 point rally from last July to mid-February.  But overall this is a market losing momentum, as seen in the declining RSI.

What's strange is that I remember the market a year ago to the day showing a smaller barrier triangle with a false breakout that ultimately marked the intermediate top, also amidst declining momentum.  This is not what I'm primarily expecting, but it is interesting when you also consider the similarities in the news.

The VIX also looks like it's ready for a breakout.  Many have noticed that the VIX does not stay outside its Bollinger Bands for long, and to close outside of it often marks an imminent reversal.  It's currently up about 8% on a flat day with the S&P just off the rally highs.